Disclaimer: This is my trading plan on the indices. This is intended to be for educational and informational purposes only. Trading is risky and loss of capital is possible. Do your own diligence. In trading, there are no guarantees. So please be careful risking capital.
Weekly plan for the indices and stocks to keep on the watchlist for trading this week:
Firstly the dollar index had a doji candle on the weekly chart. But unless the CPI increases and the dollar index gets over 104.6, the equity markets are not paying attention to the dollar.
TLT: As long as TLT is above the 93 level, the rates will also not affect the equity markets negatively.
Here is the economic calendar for the coming week.
The most important day in the markets is 2/14/2024. We have PPI and also VIX expires on Wednesday morning.
I have repeatedly written that the indices and many stocks are overbought but there is no sign of reversal or pullback.
Ever since Jan's monthly expiration, I have hedges on. But those hedges are just losing money. So rather than adding more hedges, my way of trading for the past 2 weeks has been to hold fewer positions overnight. Another adjustment I am making in my trading is to day trade often and reduce my swing trading to mostly option spreads. I have also reduced my position sizing.
So, this is how I have been managing my risk and my account. Also rather than trade choppy to sideways indices, last 2 weeks, I traded more software names like SNOW, MDB, and SHOP.
SPY: Trading the SPY on the long side is very difficult for me. So below I have shown one of the possible scenarios I am willing to trade.
Anything below 499.50 is short of the first target of 496.86 and then gap fill to 494 and then a test of the value area low and upper line of the broadening formation at 492-493 level.
And I am willing to buy and go long at the 492-494 level.
QQQ: Q’s reached the flag target this past week. It has already surpassed many fib targets.
If the below possibility plays out then I am willing to trade the Q’s
Trigger for short is below 435.7 on the Q’s. the targets to take profits will be 433.71, 431.43 and then gap fill to 427.77
IWM: It is interesting. With CPI and PPI this week, there is a possibility of IWM going to the
205 level before Wednesday and then going back down.
IWM a close above 200 will be bullish and then the next level is 201.88
If CPI and PPI are higher than expected then we can flush back to 194.81.
If CPI and PPI are in inline then the sector focus of mine is XHB.
But I am still trading software names.
From the Mag-8:
AMZN and GOOGL are the ones that I am looking to trade long. But in terms of day trade the best setup is in TSLA.
For AMZN: A pullback to 172.50 would be buyable for the test to 176 and 180.
GOOGL:
Focus this week on TSLA and IOT:
TSLA: Above 194.58, we can gap fill
IOT: Above 35.85, we get to 36.91 pretty quickly. And then 40
The plan is set.
Index Income Trades from Archnatrades is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Disclaimer: This is my trading plan on the indices. This is intended to be for educational and informational purposes only. Trading is risky and loss of capital is possible. Do your own diligence. In trading, there are no guarantees. So please be careful risking capital.