Happy New Year to everyone!!
The video attached is the overview of the indices for the coming week and quarter.
As I always do I analyze the dollar, rates, and then the indices. I have included Bitcoin analysis also.
Bitcoin has been a gauge of liquidity in the system. This also enables us to think of Bitcoin as a risk-on or risk-off indicator.
The main points and levels covered in the video are written down below.
Dollar: We have a bullish divergence on the daily chart. We may need a week or two for the dollar to consolidate for the 150-week MA to catch up. After that, I am expecting a bounce in the dollar. A bounce in the dollar can lead to a pullback in the indices.
TLT: There is a gap fill at the resistance of 102.22.
SPY: Big picture last 3 years the 477-480 level has been resistance. A break above 480 on a weekly timeframe would be powerful. But we could also have a scenario in which we break out and fade back inside. This would be a false breakout.
The leaning cup and handle support is around 450 level. Volume area high is close to 441-443. The quarterly 50% and 50% fib from Oct 2023 low also coincides with the 443 level.
So any weekly close below 442.59 would change my bias for the year. Until then I am in buy-the-dip mode.
The big tech ran so much in 2023 and there was no selling. The chances of profit taking in the big tech in 1st week of Jan are very high. The reason for this: if you sell on Jan 2nd, you do not have to pay taxes on the gains till April 2025.
This could have a downward pressure in the indices for 1st week of Jan that needs to be offset with inflows.
QQQ: It has a bearish divergence on the daily chart. The 1.272 fib target is 450.81. But when do we get that target, I have no clue.
But if we get a pullback, I am willing to buy Q’s at 395-396 level for now. A weekly close below 389 would change my bias for the year.
DIA: It is way extended from the 8-week MA. It has so many untested VPOCs. On the DIA a weekly close below 358.29 would change my bias for the year.
IWM: I am interested in buying the dip at 189 on IWM. For the first quarter, my focus is definitely on the IWM index for trades and also on small-cap stocks.
GLD: Quarterly cup and handle setup. If the cup and handle break out happens then the measured move gets us to 270 or so. The 1.272 fib extension also is close to the 270 level. On the monthly timeframe, we have an inverse head & shoulder pattern. The measured move is close to the 245 level. This is also the 100% fib extension.
So looking at the big picture, GLD is about to play a big role in 2024. Hence looking at GLS, gold miners, and Silver for trades this year.
Disclaimer: This is my trading plan on the indices. This is intended to be for educational and informational purposes only. Trading is risky and loss of capital is possible. Do your diligence. In trading, there are no guarantees. So please be careful risking capital. You are responsible for your money, capital, and trades.
Also if you have any questions about my trades you can DM me on Twitter at @archna2011
Share this post